8.04.2009

Have A Plan

"I'm gonna outplay this guy. I'm gonna outplay this guy, this hand."

-Mitch McDermott, Rounders

Anyone who thinks like this is a fucking moron.

Yes, I know it's a movie.

I also know that I see it happen in tournaments and cash games all the time. I don't even know why. People just spaz out at random points and double or triple barrel bluff into a monster on a bad board to run a bluff - an example of a bad board to run a bluff is a really dry board like 3 7 K rainbow. If you fire and get raised or flatted, you're almost never getting floated by air at lower stakes games. This is an easy check/fold on the turn unless you ran a semi-bluff and your hand improves to the best hand or a draw to the best hand.

Yet time and time again I'll see someone double barrel or triple barrel and run into AK, KQ, or a set in these spots.

Stop overthinking things. Your opponents aren't that great. Unless you see them showdown weak hands or bluffs, they're probably value betting and value calling you all these times. You can't fucking represent what the other guy is holding if you stop and think for a minute.

It took me many online sessions at $100 NL and $200 NL to realize there aren't as many crazy bluffers out there as you think. The online world is mostly filled with call stations these days. Keep that in mind and you'll do just fine.

Have a plan for your raises and bets - if you stop and ask yourself what you'll do on the turn or river if you raise and get called and can't come up with a good anwer, chances are you shouldn't make that raise or bet to begin with.

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