8.10.2009

Where Do We Go From Here?

I have really scaled back the amount of online poker I play for a couple reasons:
  1. I also sports bet and am producing far greater profits there, which in turn requires a lot of my free time researching trends and tracking line movements, but the bigger reason is
  2. Online poker has really dried up.

It was only a matter of time, really. I admire the business sense of people like Taylor Caby, Johnny Bax, Phil Galfond and other people who run poker training sites - but the reality is they've killed the game.

You'll notice how the majority of the people who run these training sites barely play the game anymore. They're more content to stake others and reap the profits of a site that has no overhead costs. Galfond is the only exception and he plays nosebleed PLO. Caby is all but retired, Townshend is a multi-accounting cheat, and Bax and Sheets either don't play much anymore or they play and fail to put up strong results.

A few years ago you could play $200 NL and $400 NL and crush it against donks would would stack off with top pair, weak kicker or worse.

Now it's to the point where it's borderline unprofitable to set mine because even as low as $100 NL you're finding players capable of laying down pretty good hands - not too mention everybody now knows about 3-betting light and the value of semi-bluffing hands.

I'll still play online tournaments because I have a 90% ROI on the site I choose to play at, but the value of cash games has taken a turn for the worse. There is a mathematically correct to play your hands in most situations and the more people who learn this, the less money can be won. Now it's just a game of set over set hands or Aces versus Kings AIPF. Yawn. I'll find another hobby, thanks.

If you choose to play cash games, make Pot Limit Omaha your game of choice. There is still plenty of dead money out there, but make sure you're properly bankrolled and can handle horrid swings because you will rarely get it all in the middle being more than a 55% favorite in any given hand.

Our only hope is that poker gets regulated in the United States and brings in an influx of bad players who were too scared to make accounts when it was all being run offshore, but maybe that's just a pipe dream for the mid-stakes grinder. My advice? Keep ahead of the curve.

No comments: