Running Bad

I have a couple theories on running bad.

The first one is that it's simple variance that happens to everyone, everywhere. Easy enough, right?

The second one is more complex. I think some people can become psychologically affected by normal variance to the point where it causes them to remain in run-bad purgatory even once the cards have started cooperating again.

An example of this would be checking a Turn you'd normally bet and missing value, or worse, letting someone get there for free, just because chasers were previously getting there even when you bet. Another example would be folding a drawing hand even when getting proper calling odds just because you haven't been getting there lately.

A lot of people will take a break from playing when they start getting cold decked. I used to be of that camp, but I'm starting to think the solution is just to keep playing. If you play professionally (or just play a lot) you're definitely in for those days when all the money goes in on the Turn with you getting the best of it and all the money being slid over to your opponents after the River card comes.

But if you're not tilting, or if you can recognize tilt and only stop playing then, why wouldn't you want to just power through it? As long as you are using sound bankroll management (I'll probably do a short post some other time about this) you will never go broke during a period of running bad. This is because you'll drop down to lower stakes if necessary to keep your risk of ruin a static number - close to zero.

And who knows how long this period of running bad could last if you limit the number of hands you play? Sure, you'll be decreasing your odds of a downswing but you're also decreasing your odds of an upswing by the same amount.

So like Tony G says, "On your bike."